Vermont Locational Demand Analysis
“It was once said that the moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped.” ~ Hubert H. Humphrey
Executive Summary
Meeting the Demand for Long-Term Care Facilities in Vermont
This study reviews the existing Vermont Long-Term Health Care Facilities and forecasts their demand for the year 2030 by Location, Facility Type and Service Type. The Facility Types are Residential Care Homes (RCH), Assisted Living Residences (ALR) and Nursing Homes (NH). Service Type Beds are herein defined as Memory Care-Special Care (MC-SC) and Other Care.
The goal of this study is to present the order of magnitude numbers and inform LTC facility owners and operators, governmental, educators and other interested parties of the locational demand outlook for Long-Term Care facilities in Vermont. A summary of expected costs and personnel requirements is also provided. Also, processes to support the expansion of Vermont’s Long-Term Care (LTC) Facilities are outlined.
Vermont is facing a burgeoning demographic and locational challenge for LTC facilities and caring for its seniors. This study reveals that the current VT Government assistance, construction and personnel growth commitments to existing and new LTC locations and Memory Care bed facilities needs to be expanded significantly to meet this challenge.
Key Findings at a Glance:
Inventory Statistics
There are presently (late 2021) 156 Long Term Care Facilities with 6441 Beds. There are 103 RCH, 17 ALR, and 36 NH Facilities.
RCH Facility types have 2201 Standard and 217 Memory Care-Special Care Beds, ALR Facility types have 911 Standard and 262 MC-SC beds, and Nursing Home Facility types have 2626 Other Care and 224 MC-SC beds.
The 2021 availability of Facilities and Service Type beds is uneven across the State. Bennington County has 74 beds per 65+ 1000 population while Orange County has 25 beds per 65+ 1000 population. The VT average is approx. 50 beds per 65+ 1000 population. Grand Isle County has no facilities, Essex County effectively has no facilities, Vt Rt 100 below Waterbury to Mass. has almost no facilities.
Demographic Demand
The 2021 to 2030 increase of 33,000 in the 65+ population is a result of the “Baby Boom”. The VT 65+ Population in 2021 was estimated at 132,000 with a 2030 population estimated at 165,500. The 65+ cohort wave is estimated to peak between 2035 and 2040.
The forecast indicates the need for 3500 Total Additional beds with 700 beds Designated for Memory Care and 31 new locations by 2030. The forecast utilizes a state top-down and county bottom-up forecasting process of the facility type, and service bed counts over the next 9 years, equating to approx. 390 beds per year, providing a 2030 total in-service of 10,000 beds.
Determining the communities that need new facilities. (Indicated in yellow on maps) utilizing GIS and drive times around existing facilities.
New Facility Cost
The capital cost to build the new facilities is estimated between $1.46 Billion and $2.45 Billion from 2022-2030.
The additional beds operating cost is estimated to be around $800 Million over the 9-year 2022-2030 period.
Additional Staff
An additional 2550 LTC Staff members will be required by 2030, consisting of 1000 Admin Staff, 800 Memory Care Nursing Staff and 750 Standard Care additional Nursing Staff.
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